taking stock: five drivers trending up, down since start of May

It is that time of the season where the reality of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series becomes undeniable. With 14 races completed, the push toward the Chase is intensifying, and the field is starting to sort itself out. While Tyler Reddick is showing improved underlying speed despite a winless May, and Christopher Bell continues to produce high-quality finishes, the volatility of the past month has defined the current momentum for much of the pack.

Among the clear risers, Shane van Gisbergen has been nothing short of impressive. Beyond his dominant road-course win at Watkins Glen, his consistency across intermediates and superspeedways has been stellar, marking his best career five-race stretch. Similarly, Daniel Suárez has been a revelation since his move to Spire Motorsports, riding a streak of top-20 finishes that includes a poignant win at Charlotte. Michael McDowell has found significant speed in the No. 71 Chevy, while Erik Jones and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. have both quietly elevated their baseline performance with much more competitive recent runs.

Unfortunately, the momentum has swung the other way for others. Ross Chastain has endured his worst four-race stretch since 2018, pushing his Chase odds below 10%. Kyle Larson is facing a growing narrative of struggle, with his recent form being his statistically worst in five years. Meanwhile, veterans like Brad Keselowski and Bubba Wallace are suffering from mid-season slumps that hide their earlier potential, and Ryan Preece is navigating his first back-to-back finishes outside the top 30 in nearly two years.

It is vital to remember that these stock trends are not power rankings; they are indicators of current trajectory. As the series moves into the final 12 weeks before the Chase cutoff, we are about to find out which of these dramatic shifts in performance are fleeting moments of luck and which are the start of something truly meaningful.