Here is the situation: just 150 points remain up for grabs this season, and Maximo Quiles of the CFMOTO Gaviota Aspar Team arrives in Japan facing his very first match point. The Spanish sensation holds a massive 131-point advantage over his title rivals, putting the crown within touching distance.
Four riders remain in mathematical contention heading into this crucial weekend at Motegi. Alongside Quiles, the contenders are Alvaro Carpe and Brian Uriarte of Red Bull KTM Ajo, as well as David Almansa representing Liqui Moly Dynavolt Intact GP.
To seal the championship right there in Japan, Quiles simply needs to leave the venue with at least a 150-point advantage. The exact math for Sunday offers a few clear paths for the #28 machine. If Quiles wins the race and collects the maximum 25 points available, he would need Carpe to finish P10 or below, while Almansa and Uriarte must both cross the line in P9 or lower.
Alternatively, the #28 can also wrap up the title with a second-place finish. Under that specific scenario, Carpe would require a finish of P15 or below, with both Almansa and Uriarte needing to end up P14 or lower. Anything third place or lower simply will not be enough for Quiles to secure the World Championship this weekend, meaning the fight would extend to at least Indonesia.
This kind of dominance is rarely seen. It has been an incredible season for Quiles, who has already racked up nine race wins and 13 podiums from the opening 15 rounds. The #28 has managed to score 32 points more than his entire 2025 campaign already, perfectly illustrating just how devastating his form has been throughout the year.
The action at Motegi gets underway with lights out at 11:00 Local Time (UTC +9) on Sunday morning.
