Kansas Speedway has spent the last few years turning the white flag into a warning. Kyle Larson took it this spring with the lead, and Tyler Reddick held the checkered flag moments later. Last fall, Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace were battling for the victory on the final lap when contact opened the door for Chase Elliott to sweep past both of them. And in May 2024, Larson edged Chris Buescher by 0.001 seconds, the closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history.
There is a reason the trend has earned the nickname Krazy Kansas. The winning pass has come in the final two laps in five of the last seven Kansas races, including four last-lap passes, while four of the last six have gone to NASCAR Overtime. Meanwhile, the driver who led the most laps has won just once in the last eight trips to the 1.5-mile track. Sometimes, it is better to be positioned than dominant.
That unpredictability arrives Sunday at an especially interesting moment in The Chase presented by Mobil 1. Three races into the 10-race championship run, the field has already started to stretch out a bit. Larson left Bristol Motor Speedway with a one-point advantage over Hamlin for his first points lead of the season, while race winner Joey Logano sits 16 points back and Christopher Bell 17 behind. From there, the gaps grow quickly, with Ty Gibbs at 42 points back and Ryan Blaney at 52. Reddick sits seventh at 61 points back and trending the wrong way, followed by Carson Hocevar at 85, Chase Briscoe at 87, Wallace at 92, Austin Cindric at 116, Elliott at 117, Byron at 121, Ryan Preece at 124, Buescher at 124, and Daniel Suárez at 134. Every driver from eighth through 16th is already more than a full race worth of points behind Larson.
The problem for the leaders is that Kansas might be exactly where several of those trailing contenders are best positioned to turn things around. Start with Reddick, whose deficit grew by 19 points at Bristol. Reddick won here in April after Larson led at the white flag, making the winning pass between Turns 3 and 4 on the final lap for his second Kansas victory in six races. Toyota stablemate Briscoe has an equally compelling reason to welcome Kansas after Bristol dropped him to 87 points back. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing, Briscoe has finished fourth or better in all three of his Kansas starts, including a third-place result this spring, and won the most recent 1.5-mile race at Chicagoland.
Wallace already owns a Kansas win from 2022 and has four top-five finishes in his last eight races here, alongside top-10 runs in four of the last five races on 1.5-mile tracks. 23XI Racing as an organization has turned Kansas into one of its signature venues, winning four of the last nine races there with three different drivers. Then there is Elliott, whose current form makes his Kansas history stand out even more. Elliott has just one top-five finish and two top 10s over his last 18 races, but he won this race last September, owns two victories here overall, and boasts a 9.81 career average finish at the track, the best among drivers with at least six starts.
His teammate Byron might be even more intriguing. His 121-point deficit makes him look removed from the championship picture, but his results on traditional 1.5-mile tracks tell another story. Byron and Hamlin are the only drivers to finish in the top 10 in all five such races this season, with Byron producing a 6.2 average finish in the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. Even Buescher, 124 points behind, has firsthand knowledge of how close Kansas can come to changing everything, courtesy of his runner-up finish to Larson in May 2024.
For all its recent chaos, however, Kansas has not become random. No driver has earned a first career Cup victory at Kansas in any of its 41 races, and the last 30 Kansas winners all entered with at least 100 previous Cup starts. The recent formula has been about proven contenders staying close enough to capitalize when the race changes in the closing laps. For Reddick, Briscoe, Wallace, Elliott, Byron, and the rest of the Chase back half, merely running well will very likely not result in a title, as the gaps have grown too large too quickly. Thankfully for them, Kansas has shown a repeated willingness to offer something more dramatic and open a window of opportunity.
Source: Racing Insights / NASCAR
