We have officially hit the halfway mark of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase presented by Mobil 1 following the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. That leaves five races standing between the postseason field and the coveted Bill France Cup. Naturally, the paddock is buzzing with one burning question: can Chase Briscoe pull off a historic, Tony Stewart-esque title charge?
Fresh off a thrilling victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing driver is firmly in the hunt, but the math is brutal. Pat DeCola points out that the Vegas winner sits 84 points back at the halfway point. In fact, Briscoe has actually lost ground from where he started prior to Darlington, meaning he needs to stack another two, three, or perhaps four wins to mirror Stewart's epic 2011 campaign where the Hall of Famer won five of ten postseason races. Charlotte and Homestead are precisely the kind of 1.5-mile tracks where the machine can fly, but the margin for error is razor-thin.
Dustin Albino notes that while Briscoe's speed is undeniable — having won two of the last three races at 1.5-mile tracks and nearly sweeping a hat trick before getting passed late at Kansas Speedway — matching his childhood hero requires an unprecedented feat. To pull it off, he would need four wins in the next five races, a streak no driver has produced in the Next Gen car. Even a pair of victories would drastically alter the standings, but a full Stewart-style comeback remains a massive long shot.
Then there is the matter of rivals and resistance. Zack Albert argues that a true replica of Stewart's 2011 postseason pounding would require some old-fashioned head games to rattle the opposition, reminiscent of how Smoke rattled Carl Edwards' composure at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Furthermore, Zack Albert, Dustin Albino, and Zach Sturniolo all emphasize that Briscoe needs significant help. Surviving means banking on a dramatic fade from Kyle Larson after his bulletproof start, alongside similar drops in performance from steady heavyweights like Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney.
Time, unfortunately, is working against the No. 19 Toyota. Cameron Richardson highlights that past trouble — including a crash at Gateway and a mechanical failure that parked the car in the garage late at the Bristol Night Race — dug too deep a hole compared to Stewart, who jumped to the top of the standings immediately after winning the first two races of the 2011 Chase. With looming landmines like Talladega where title hopes vanish through no fault of one's own, and Martinsville as a historical weak spot, the road ahead is treacherous. The speed of the No. 19 is championship-level, but perfection and a lot of outside luck are the only tickets left.
