Max Verstappen leads the market for pole position in Brazil despite missing out on the top spot in both the United States and Mexico City, where he qualified only second and fourth-fastest. Bookmakers have priced him at 6/4 (2.50, +150) for the session at the Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace, matching the odds he carried in Mexico. While his memorable 2024 Sao Paulo win came from 17th on the grid, he did secure victory from pole in both 2019 and 2023. Verstappen currently holds more race wins than poles this season, with Qualifying having produced a varied list of winners featuring six different drivers across the last seven rounds, though he remains the only repeat winner among them with his successes in Sepang and Singapore.
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) sits as the second-favourite for pole at 5/2 (3.50, +250). Bookmakers refuse to take risks on the newly-crowned World Champion, even though his qualifying dominance has slowed down after taking pole at six of the first 10 races this season followed by just one fastest time since in Austin, Texas. The Italian ace brings prior experience to Interlagos, having gone second-fastest to Norris in both the Sprint and Grand Prix qualifying sessions last season.
Ferrari arrives with both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton priced identically at 5/1 (6.0, +500) in the qualifying betting, giving the pair a stronger market look for pole than for the grand prix itself. Leclerc secured third place on the grid in Mexico following a second-place qualifying finish in Singapore and a fourth in Austin where he topped Q2. Though he has never claimed pole at Interlagos, he has shown consistent speed here with a second place in 2023 and the third-fastest time last season. Meanwhile, Hamilton pushed his career pole tally to 105 with his success in Mexico City, a performance that earned him identical odds to his teammate this week after previously sitting at longer odds than Leclerc at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. Hamilton's history at the venue includes taking pole back in 2012 for McLaren and for Mercedes in 2016 and 2018, contrasted with a difficult qualifying run last season where he missed Q3 entirely to finish 11th in Sprint Qualifying and 13th in Grand Prix Qualifying.
George Russell (Mercedes) rounds out the main contenders in the qualifying markets at 12/1 (13.0, +1200) to grab his first pole since Azerbaijan, placing him ahead of Lando Norris in the pole odds despite sitting sixth in the grand prix market for Interlagos. With five fastest-qualifying sessions to his name this season, Russell secured a front-row start in Mexico via a strong Q3 lap before deployment issues struck on the opening lap of the race. Across the grid, Qualifying continues to throw unpredictable results, highlighted by Hamilton's first pole of the season in Mexico ahead of George Russell and Charles Leclerc, a race ultimately won by Verstappen from fifth on the grid following a one-place penalty.
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