Here is the reality facing Jorge Martin of Aprilia Racing heading into the Portuguese GP: he sits 60 points adrift of Championship leader Marc Marquez from the Ducati Lenovo Team, with just 74 points left on the table this season. The math is brutal, but the dream of a World Championship fight is not entirely dead yet. As the battle for the next 37 points gets ready to kick off, we have to look at exactly what Martin needs to pull off this miracle.
In the simplest possible terms, Martin needs to outscore Marc Marquez by 24 points over the course of the Portuguese GP weekend. It starts on Saturday afternoon, where the first 12 Sprint points are on offer. If Martin can win Saturday's Sprint, he stays in title contention. Should Marquez finish behind the #89 machine in P2, the gap would shrink to 57 points, setting the stage for a crucial Sunday.
There are other survival paths for Saturday, too. A second-place Sprint finish is enough for Martin to carry the fight into Sunday, but only if Marc Marquez finishes P3 or lower. Alternatively, if the #89 rider finishes third, he would need the #93 to finish P4 or lower. If Martin finishes P4 or lower in the Sprint, things get even tighter: he would require Marc Marquez to score no more than one point more than the #89, keeping the gap at 61 points or less.
Should Martin manage to keep the Championship gap to 61 points or less after Saturday, he still has a massive mountain to climb on Sunday. The #89 needs to leave Portugal no more than 36 points behind Marc Marquez to take the title fight all the way to Valencia. Countback is completely off the table for Martin here, having secured only one Grand Prix victory this season compared to Marc Marquez and his dominant seven.
That is the mountain standing right in front of Martin. Can he actually pull it off and drag the title fight to the season finale in Valencia? We are about to find out as Round 21 gets underway.
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