According to Motorsport.com, the NASCAR Cup Series championship battle is essentially finished before the final race even begins. Kyle Larson enters the penultimate weekend holding a 67-point advantage over Christopher Bell and 70 points over Denny Hamlin. A perfect race outing pays 76 points, meaning it would take an absolute disaster for Larson combined with a legendary run from his pursuers to alter the standings. In reality, Larson needs only nine points at Homestead-Miami Speedway to claim the crown.
That reality has already set in for the contenders. Hamlin didn't mince words about his fading chances, offering a stark football analogy on Saturday before calling the upcoming finale a "dog and pony show." Hamlin and Bell both saw their hopes take heavy hits during Sunday's action, where both drivers were spun by Joey Logano in the second stage, while the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 team also collected a pit road speeding penalty. Hamlin admitted his run is completely unrealistic now, noting his team simply failed to execute to their best ability.
Bell was equally blunt about his position, pointing out that his championship defeat wasn't sealed on Sunday. Instead, he blamed lost ground earlier in the Chase, citing troubles at Talladega, Gateway, and a steering issue at Vegas. With both remaining challengers effectively throwing in the towel, Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels only need a modest, trouble-free run next weekend to secure Hendrick Motorsports their third championship in six seasons.
Despite the massive cushion, Larson isn't planning to coast. He knows how quickly these Next-Gen machines can bite you with a flat tire or broken toe link, so he intends to chase points early in the stages. Once that objective is met, expect him right back up where he feels most comfortable. "To me, the wall's got more grip and the wall is where I'm comfortable, so I'm sure I'll be up there," Larson said regarding his aggressive driving style.
For Hamlin's camp, the postmortem has already begun. Crew chief Chris Gayle reflected on a season where the top-seeded team went winless over their final nine races after taking four victories in the first 26 rounds, citing a constant stream of minor errors that prevented them from stringing clean weekends together. Meanwhile, Hendrick Motorsports president Jeff Andrews can look back on a tough organizational start—which included a 51-race winless drought for Larson and struggles across the stable alongside Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, and William Byron—with immense pride in how the team united internally.
Daniels isn't changing the formula for the finale, either. The crew chief intends to stick with the rigorous preparation that got them to this point, ensuring they give proper justice to the hard work invested so far. The math is simple, the rivals have conceded, and the No. 5 machine is primed to finish the job.
