Here is the reality facing the NASCAR Cup Series field heading into Sunday: Kyle Larson arrives at Martinsville Speedway holding a 73-point advantage over Denny Hamlin. That massive cushion comes courtesy of a victory at Talladega Superspeedway last week, which marked his third win of the postseason. Now, the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports driver needs to score 59 points in the Xfinity 500 to lock up his third Bill France Cup—and his second in a row—next weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway, provided he simply starts the race. It is a staggering setup for the penultimate round of the 2026 season, broadcast live on NBC, HBO Max, MRN Radio, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio from the hills of southern Virginia.
To beat the defending series champion, you are going to have to knock him out, and Martinsville is a brutally hard place to do that. Larson boasts an average finish of 5.8 across nine Next Gen starts at the 0.526-mile short track, and he has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last eight races at "The Paperclip," including a win in April 2023. That short-track speed is no fluke either, as he has finished top 10 in 11 of the last 15 races on this track type, sparked by a P6 finish at Richmond Raceway over the summer. Having already joined an exclusive club as one of only three drivers all-time with seven top-six finishes in the first eight postseason races, another strong run on Sunday only tightens his grip on the crown.
Yet a pack of six hungry Chase presented by Mobil 1 drivers are desperate to pump the brakes on the No. 5 machine. Drivers like Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe need outright victories to keep any championship hopes alive over the 500 laps of close-quarters racing. For Hamlin, the Chase certainly has not gone to plan, but a win here could extend the title fight by one more week. The veteran holds six wins in Ridgeway, Virginia—the most among active drivers—along with 15 career short-track triumphs and a record of finishing inside the top 10 in all six short-track races this season. Having led north of 3,000 laps at Martinsville, the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver needs to finish within 22 points of Larson to control his own destiny heading to Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Meanwhile, this year's short-track king is hungry for one more trophy to cap off the campaign. Joey Logano has taken all three of his victories this year on this track type, starting with a summer triumph at North Wilkesboro Speedway that turned his season around. He carries an active streak of 14 consecutive top-10 finishes at Martinsville—the third-longest in track history—and has never recorded a DNF in 35 starts. Sunday will mark his 650th career start, and a win would make the No. 22 Team Penske driver only the second person to win on the exact day of that milestone, joining Richard Petty at Dover in 1974. Though he remains mathematically eligible for the championship, sitting 100 points back means Racing Insights pegs his odds for a fourth title at just 0.1%. With 500 laps of pure short-track chaos on tap, all bets are off.
Nascar Cup Series
