That new-look Chase presented by Mobil 1 is proving it can hand out wild reversals of fortune all on its own. Just a week after a disastrous run at Phoenix had Kyle Larson fighting for his title life, he bounced back to secure his third victory in the eight-race span of The Chase thus far. It was a stunning win built on survival—dropping back to 11th place on the final lap, working the backstretch with proper drafting skills, and making a split-second move through the tri-oval. That brilliance leaves him with a 73-point cushion over second-ranked Denny Hamlin, the largest lead anyone has held at any point during the 2026 Chase.
With just two races remaining on the 2026 calendar, the clock is ticking loudly for the chasing pack. While drivers like Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano are technically still mathematically alive, their elimination is practically knocking on the door. Larson needs just 27 points over the next two races to shut the door completely on the No. 45 team, even if they score maximum points across stages, race finishes, and the fastest lap. That magic figure is 46 points against Blaney and 53 against Logano. Considering Larson averaged about 65 points per every two races this season, perfect performances from the Nos. 12 and 22 Penske teams probably won't be enough.
That leaves Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Chase Briscoe as the only names with a realistic shot at hunting down the leader. Briscoe sits 79 points back, but his recent surge on intermediate tracks—including back-to-back wins at Las Vegas and Charlotte—gives him hope that everything could come down to Homestead-Miami. In fact, 91% of his championship-winning simulations in the forecast model feature a Homestead victory. But to get there, he has to conquer Martinsville, where his past five Cup races at 'The Paperclip' feature just one finish better than 10th (a ninth-place run in March 2025). If Briscoe scores his average of 27 points per Martinsville race from that span, Larson needs only 24 to eliminate the No. 19.
Bell is 74 points behind after an early unforced error on pit road at Talladega effectively squandered his chance to capitalize. Now, he needs near-perfect drives for two consecutive races and a helping of misfortune for the leader. On the bright side, Bell boasts an average finish of 8.0 in eight races on short and/or flat tracks this season, alongside a runner-up finish at Chicagoland, a Southern 500 victory, and second-place runs at both Charlotte races.
Then there is Hamlin, sitting 73 points back. The shine has come off his title hopes after a summer of promise, though his average finish of 11.9 over eight Chase races with five top 10s and an average Driver Rating of 93.2 are entirely respectable numbers. Yet respectable does not win championships, a reality Hamlin acknowledged after Talladega. 'Truthfully, [Larson has] done a lot of things right, and a lot of things have really gone right, and we’ve not done that,' Hamlin said.
Two solid weekends will not erase a 73-point deficit; he needs wins right now. If Hamlin wins twice at his season average points per win (64.3), Larson would still need at least 57 points across Martinsville and Homestead to clinch. It is not an impossible bar—Larson has scored at least 29 points in 21 of 34 races this season, or 61.8%—but it puts the pressure squarely on the No. 5 team. Perhaps Martinsville, where Hamlin has won more grandfather clocks than any other active full-time driver, is the launchpad for one last improbable comeback.
