Here is the wild reality of the Red Bull driver machine: Nikola Tsolov just stepped into an FP1 session in Mexico, and it has immediately blown the battle for a 2027 Racing Bulls seat wide open. As an F2 frontrunner who has already logged mileage through TPC running at Imola, Tsolov looks naturally primed for a promotion. But it is not that simple when you look at the sheer traffic jam inside the camp.
Let's be clear, this is a classic Red Bull initiation. When you look at recent years, Isack Hadjar, Liam Lawson, and Arvid Lindblad all took part in FP1 sessions in Mexico as a rite of passage. Racing Bulls Team Principal Alan Permane confirmed a few weeks ago that it is a three-into-two scenario, with Tsolov very much in the frame. The headache for management? All three drivers have performed superbly this season, and with Hadjar already confirmed alongside Max Verstappen at Red Bull, the senior squad's doors are locked.
A year ago I thought about it a lot, it was very much in my head. And you just drive worse – you just overthink things,
Arvid Lindblad has impressed as the only rookie in the 2026 field, and his job appears entirely secure from the outside. The Briton is staying cool. “In the end, I'm just focused on my year and doing as best as I can,” Lindblad said. “I know that's the thing that's going to help me. Always, when performance is better, that helps.” He added that after a long time in the Red Bull family, it is not something he is wasting energy on.
Liam Lawson, meanwhile, has made life agonizing for his bosses. At the start of the year, many expected him to be the odd man out if a youngster needed promoting. Instead, the New Zealander has consistently made Q3, scored points with Racing Bulls, and delivered a solid job when subbing for the injured Hadjar at the senior team. Dropping him now would be a harsh decision, to say the least. “I just feel like it's been a very strong year for us,” Lawson explained, noting how hard consistency is to find in F1.
Lawson has learned to block out the noise about his future. “A year ago I thought about it a lot, it was very much in my head. And you just drive worse – you just overthink things,” he admitted. Whether or not he stays, he knows he left nothing on the table. “If I wasn't driving next year, I would feel like there wasn't much more that I could have done.”
Ultimately, Lawson's survival might hinge on those crucial substitute races for Red Bull, answering doubts left over from a rocky start to 2025. Having seized his second chance at Milton Keynes, Lawson feels he proved a point. “At least I could show people that I can drive that car – or any car,” he said. Now, management has an impossible choice to make.
