Forget the final-day-of-school feeling of past championship finales at Phoenix Raceway. While the 1-mile desert oval is no longer hosting the title decider—that honor returning to Homestead-Miami Speedway this year—Sunday's Freeway Insurance 500 remains a massive hurdle in the 10-race Chase presented by Mobil 1.
Kyle Larson arrives out front, holding a 49-point advantage over Denny Hamlin. That dynamic brings back painful memories of last November, when Larson used a split in pit strategy to deny Hamlin in the final battle for the Bill France Cup. With the races winding down, Hamlin knows the time to strike is right now. "No desperation, but the gap needs to start closing starting now," Hamlin said.
I'm treating it as they're not gonna have a mistake and we have to go win races to catch him,
Saturday's qualifying session offered the chasers a glimmer of hope. Larson stumbled to a 22nd-place starting spot after a bobble on his timed lap. Meanwhile, his closest rivals capitalized. Team Penske drivers Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano swept the front row, while Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Chase Briscoe, Hamlin, and Christopher Bell rounded out the top five in that order.
Bell sits third in the Cup standings with a 51-point deficit, carrying a reputation for stacking up runner-up finishes this year. Right behind the lead trio are Briscoe at minus-65 and Blaney at minus-85, both carrying bids for three consecutive wins. Briscoe is riding a white-hot scorch through the 1.5-mile tracks with finishes of fourth, first, and first, though his recent history at Phoenix has been plagued by tire-pressure issues. Blaney, on the other hand, boasts victories in the tour's two most recent visits to the Southwest.
Making up ground on Larson is a brutal task given his near-flawless execution and a stellar 2.83 average finish through the first half-dozen postseason races. Blaney isn't banking on a collapse from the leader. "I'm treating it as they're not gonna have a mistake and we have to go win races to catch him," Blaney said after claiming his fourth Phoenix pole and fifth of the season.
Strategy will once again play a massive role over the 312-lap distance, especially given how recent Phoenix races have boiled down to a split in pit stops between right-side-only changes and four-tire service. With the Next Gen car era showing that the drivers who lead laps at Phoenix usually win, the battle in Avondale is set to dramatically shape the closing stretch of The Chase.
