With four races remaining in the 2026 Cup Series season, the cream has risen to the top of The Chase presented by Mobil 1. Six drivers have separated themselves from the pack, combining to win 10 of the last 14 visits to Phoenix Raceway. Ryan Blaney is chasing history here, aiming to become just the third driver to win three consecutive races in the Sonoran Desert, joining Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson. In the fantasy realm, the battle boils down to Team Penske versus the field.
When looking at the must-start drivers, Ryan Blaney of Team Penske in the No. 12 Ford is an obvious focal point. Blaney scored his crowning achievement at Phoenix in 2023 by hoisting the Bill France Cup, and he has been stellar here for years, placing inside the top two positions in six of the last eight visits. Even with multiple pit crew woes during the spring race involving Austin Cindric, Blaney still rebounded to win. Outside of the Penske walls, Christopher Bell of Joe Gibbs Racing in the No. 20 Toyota looms as his toughest opponent in "The Valley of the Sun." The No. 20 team has won twice in its last five trips to Phoenix, with four top-five efforts during that span, though Bell led a race-high 176 laps in the spring only to leave dejected after the first of his eight runner-up finishes in 2026. Meanwhile, Joey Logano of Team Penske in the No. 22 Ford sits on a 92-point deficit, but nobody is counting the three-time Cup titleist out yet. Logano has captured four checkered flags at Phoenix, tied for his most at any race track alongside Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and Team Penske thrives on flat tracks.
On the flip side, certain drivers are best avoided for this round. Ty Gibbs of Joe Gibbs Racing in the No. 54 Toyota has been streaky at Phoenix since joining the big leagues, placing fourth in March and securing two short-track victories in 2026, yet his average finish of 20.3 ranks him 13th out of the 16 championship hopefuls. He is joined on the avoid list by Carson Hocevar of Spire Motorsports in the No. 77 Chevrolet, who trails Gibbs among Chasers with a 22.7 average finish, tied with Ryan Preece for 14th among the 16 Chase drivers. Hocevar's Phoenix struggles are apparent with three consecutive finishes of 20th or worse and a best result of 15th in six starts.
For sleepers who could shake things up, William Byron of Hendrick Motorsports in the No. 24 Chevrolet warrants attention. Byron's championship hopes may be fading, but his Phoenix numbers shouldn't be overlooked; the 2023 winner has finished seventh or better in six of his last eight starts at the Avondale oval and leads all drivers in laps spent inside the top five with 1,963 and the top 10 with 2,510 in the Next Gen car. He is joined by Josh Berry of Wood Brothers Racing in the No. 21 Ford, representing the extended Penske fold. Berry has been phenomenal down the stretch at flatter venues, earning two of his three Phoenix top 10s in the famed No. 21 machine including a personal best of fourth place in March 2025.
Featured matchups offer tight tactical choices. Denny Hamlin gets the nod over Kyle Larson, with Hamlin having lost ground to Larson in all six Chase races despite leading 208 of 319 laps last year and the Chris Gayle-led group coming out swinging. In a dead heat between Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell, Blaney takes the historical edge with six top-two finishes in the last eight races. Chase Briscoe enters as the hottest driver in Cup with back-to-back victories and 58 points shaved from Larson's lead in just two weeks, but he faces an uphill battle against Joey Logano in the head-to-head. Finally, Bubba Wallace offers more upside than Chase Elliott, given that the No. 9 team hasn't scored a top-five finish here since 2021 while Wallace boasts a pair of top 10s in the last four appearances.
For the season-long 36 for 36 points battle where players can choose each car once per year, Riley Herbst of 23XI Racing in the No. 35 Toyota steps in. Herbst is a formidable Phoenix player who won the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series season finale in 2024 in dominant fashion, and while his best Cup finish in three Phoenix starts is an 18th place earned earlier this season, his results have improved with each visit.
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