As The Race reports, the relationship between Aston Martin and its Formula 1 power unit partner Honda is under severe strain, raising questions about the future of the partnership. Beyond the depressing headline Q1 ejections, we are left wondering: is the AMR26-Honda a rare Adrian Newey dud paired with a poor engine, or a good car saddled with a truly terrible engine? Looking at the season's data, the car suffered a step-change worsening from Barcelona to Spa as rivals upgraded while the AMR26 stayed in race one spec, followed by a step-change improvement from its sole update in Hungary.
By breaking down GPS data from each track, we can see how much time the car loses on full-throttle straights. Comparing Max Verstappen's pole time at Sepang to Fernando Alonso's 12th-fastest time, the Aston Martin driver is 2.090s behind despite having surrendered 2.238s to the Red Bull on the full-throttle parts of the lap. The inference is that with power parity Alonso could've been on pole by a tenth and a half. Even more eye-opening is that despite the huge disappointment of Singapore, where Alonso went out in Q1 convinced the turbo was broken, the car's corner performance was even more competitive than at Sepang.
Since that Hungary upgrade, Alonso has been driving a car with a balance and poise that he has praised. On the cooling lap at Zandvoort after getting ninth-place points, he radioed: "Thanks to everyone at Silverstone. Amazing. A lovely car to drive." That coincided with the introduction of the ADUO 1 Honda upgrade, but the feedback from both drivers was that it had lost the driveability gains made with the previous version. When comparing the Aston Martin to the pole car at each track since its aero upgrade, the laptime deficits when not on full throttle are: Hungaroring +1.310s, Zandvoort 1.011s, Monza 0.237s, Madrid 1.003s, Baku 2.203s, Sepang -0.148s, and Singapore -0.370s.
Deriving the implied percentage split of the deficit between power unit-limited and chassis-limited sections, the numbers show power unit versus chassis splits of 49.6% and 50.4% at the Hungaroring, 59.3% and 40.7% at Zandvoort, 92.9% and 7.1% at Monza, 52% and 48% at Madrid, 47% and 53% at Baku, 101% and -1% at Sepang, and 113% and -13% at Singapore. These numbers suggest the car was losing time in corners and full-throttle sections, but with the power unit forming the dominant part of the deficit. At Sepang and Singapore, it was actually faster through the corners than the pole car.
Troublingly, as the chassis performance has steadily improved, the power unit appears to be worse with each ADUO upgrade. The ADUO 1 unit arrived at Zandvoort and the full-throttle deficit increased by a couple of tenths. Attending to those driveability issues via a turbo modification resulted in the ADUO 2 spec, which Alonso first got in Baku. This was in the car during its encouraging run at Sepang, but the intricate corner-upon-corner layout of Singapore triggered it into a nightmare of terrible throttle response and wildly inconsistent deployment.
If the AMR26 could magically be given power unit parity, would it really have been fighting for pole? Not until Sepang, no, though the numbers suggest it would have been a high Q2 or lower Q3 car since its Hungary upgrade. But from Sepang, quite possibly yes, even in Singapore. There is a disclaimer, however: it is quite possible that the Honda power unit's unique architecture with the MGU-K up front, as requested by Newey to centralise mass, has flattered the car's cornering performance. A more powerful, conventionally configured Mercedes or Red Bull power unit could possibly lose that cornering advantage.
These cautious disclaimers aside, we can get an order-of-magnitude idea of the split between chassis and power unit responsible for the big laptime deficit. A much more detailed version of that picture will be at the very heart of ongoing discussions between the team and Honda about what the future might hold for the partnership. Smallprint factors like track evolution between sessions and chosen downforce levels must be noted, but the basic outline of a very respectable chassis let down by its power unit remains clear.
