Two of NASCAR’s heaviest hitters are rolling into the desert for a massive weekend, holding very different hands as the postseason presses on. Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson currently commands the Cup Series standings with all the momentum in the world after a terrifyingly dominant outing at Kansas Speedway. But waiting for him is Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin, a man who boasts the clear best 1.5-mile-track resume in the field and back-to-back victories at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the site of Sunday's South Point 400.
Just 26 points separate them atop the standings entering Race No. 5 of The Chase presented by Mobil 1. Larson turned a one-point lead over Hamlin entering Kansas into a 26-point advantage by claiming every single point available: both stages, the fastest-lap point, and the race win for a maximum 76-point day in the No. 5 Chevrolet. It kept a remarkable opening stretch rolling for the 34-time Cup winner, whose finishes of fifth, first, second and first through four Chase races have produced a 2.25 average finish—the best through the first four races of any postseason since The Chase debuted in 2004.
And yet, Hamlin at Las Vegas makes a terrifyingly convincing case to erase that cushion. His numbers across the six intermediate tracks this season echo Larson's elite start, securing first, fourth, second, third, third and third. Hamlin is the sole driver to finish in the top five in all six, and his 2.67 average finish matches Jimmie Johnson in 2005 and Bobby Labonte in 1999 for the best ever through the first six 1.5-mile races of a season. He has spent 83% of the laps run on those tracks inside the top five.
“We just gotta, I mean, do what we’ve been doing in Las Vegas,” Hamlin said after Kansas Speedway. “That’s a track that, you know, I feel like I’ve got a great feel for, especially in the race, and so we’ll see how it all plays out.”
The statistics reveal a fascinating tug-of-war. While Hamlin brings unrelenting consistency, Larson has actually led more laps on 1.5-mile tracks this year at 412 to Hamlin’s 393, with Christopher Bell sitting a distant third among Chase drivers with 145. Larson’s average finish on these tracks sits at 13.8 only due to two brutal 34th-place results at Texas and Chicagoland; remove those outliers and his other four intermediate finishes are seventh, second, fifth and first. When the No. 5 hits, it hits with staggering force, though Larson knows how quickly the tide can turn.
“I only have a 26, I think, point lead on Denny,” Larson said after Kansas. “That could be swallowed up in a hurry. I scored 76 points today. So, Denny could go have a max points day next week, and I could blow an engine, like Noah (Gragson) did in the first stage, and I’m down 70-some points right there.”
History in Sin City only deepens the plot. Hamlin can become just the second driver to win three straight Cup races at Las Vegas, joining Jimmie Johnson from 2005-07, having already overcome a speeding penalty in the spring to win while scoring 70 points. But Larson fires back with three career Cup wins at the venue, a record 881 laps led, an 8.9 average finish, and six top-two results in his 11 Vegas starts since joining Hendrick Motorsports. In the Next Gen era alone, Larson has led 657 laps at Las Vegas compared to Hamlin’s 232. Sunday is anyone's game.
