Four races into The Chase presented by Mobil 1, Mother Nature has only permitted a single time-trial qualifying session to set the NASCAR Cup Series starting lineup. For three other events, teams have had to rely entirely on the performance metric to determine the starting grid after inclement weather washed out practice and qualifying at Darlington Raceway, Bristol Motor Speedway, and Kansas Speedway.
While the metric functions simply as an equation factoring recent performance into the starting order, it plays an obvious role when a race starts with zero previous on-track time. The formula weighs two specific factors: 70% of the previous race finish and 30% of the current position in owners points. Every week, regardless of weather, this equation sets the qualifying order. A lower metric means a better starting position and a later run in qualifying, though two major caveats exist in the NASCAR Rule Book. Championship-eligible drivers competing in The Chase are normally assigned the final qualifying positions, but if qualifying itself is rained out, that added benefit disappears and those contenders are simply slotted wherever the math dictates.
It still rewards performance. It rewards running well. I personally don’t have a huge issue with it. I mean, tell me a better way and maybe I’ll change my opinion.
That reality places immense value on a driver's finish from the week prior. It hit hard at the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington following the chaotic regular-season finale at Daytona International Speedway, leaving 37.5% of The Chase field to start 20th or worse: William Byron in 20th, Ryan Blaney in 24th, Kyle Larson in 25th, Ty Gibbs in 28th, Carson Hocevar in 34th, and Chris Buescher in 35th. Fighting through traffic to earn critical stage points on a narrow track is a brutal task, yet Blaney finished fifth, Byron ninth, and Gibbs tenth.
A similar mess followed the race at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway, leaving another six contenders starting 20th or worse at Bristol: Tyler Reddick in 20th, Buescher in 23rd, Chase Briscoe in 26th, Chase Elliott in 27th, Daniel Suárez in 28th, and Blaney in 29th. Only Blaney managed to salvage stage points, finishing sixth in Stage 1. Blaney was bitten by the metric yet again at Kansas following a late-race crash at Bristol with Hocevar, putting the No. 12 Team Penske Ford 25th on the grid before he clawed back to tenth for a single stage point.
Naturally, drivers have mixed feelings about the system. “I got done saying last week, ‘Oh, the metric is what it is.’ And now I’m starting to slowly hate it like you all for what’s been happening to us,” Blaney admitted ahead of the Kansas weekend, pointing out the brutal challenge of poor pit-stall selections and fighting through traffic. Meanwhile, his teammate Joey Logano has experienced both extremes, starting 13th at Darlington, second at Bristol, and on pole at Kansas. “Obviously last week, we were on the right side of it; Darlington, weren’t,” Logano said. “It still rewards performance. It rewards running well. I personally don’t have a huge issue with it. I mean, tell me a better way and maybe I’ll change my opinion.”
An uncharacteristic stretch of bad weather has thrust the math into the spotlight during the opening stretch of the postseason. With a championship on the line across a ten-race battle, a system rewarding recent results beats out the old days of random draws and season-long owners points when the rain falls.
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