What a difference one week in the desert can make. For weeks, Kyle Larson looked unstoppable on his march toward a second consecutive Cup Series championship in The Chase presented by Mobil 1, with destiny firmly on his side even amidst Chase Briscoe's consecutive wins. But that momentum slammed into a brick wall in Phoenix.
Qualifying a lowly 22nd on the grid, Larson's team never found a workable setup for the No. 5 car. He walked away with zero stage points, an average running position of just 21.98 marking his seventh-worst run of the season, and a Lap 293 wreck that capped off a miserable day with a 34th-place finish. It added up to a Driver Rating of 49.3, representing the 11th-worst drive of his career and his worst performance of 2026.
"You guys thought I was lying to you all week when I said we weren't good here," Larson remarked afterward, despite having previously reeled off four straight top-four finishes at Phoenix. "I didn't expect to be good, but I didn't expect to be that bad, either. … We were just trying to kind of fight as much as we could and just scratch them off or whatever finish we're gonna get."
While Larson still clings to a slim points lead, his margin evaporated as nearly every other top competitor capitalized simultaneously. Aside from Denny Hamlin finishing 28th while securing 12 stage points, every other top seven Chase driver through Charlotte finished eighth or better at Phoenix. Where only two drivers sat within 60 points of Larson before Sunday, six now do.
Consequently, championship forecast odds plummeted from a commanding 72.5% down to 32.6%, briefly trailing Christopher Bell at 35.2%, though Larson remains ahead of Briscoe at 14.6%. Bell now poses the ultimate threat, boasting a superior average Driver Rating across the seven Chase races so far at 111.4 compared to Larson's 109.2, and holding the head-to-head advantage in four of those seven outings.
Bell is not alone in smelling blood in the water. Ryan Blaney sits 40 points back with the highest average projected Driver Rating across the final three tracks, Joey Logano trails by 44 points with a favorable remaining schedule, and Briscoe is just 24 points back holding the top projected rating at Homestead-Miami.
All of this sets the stage for Talladega this weekend, where the YellaWood 500 carries the highest championship leverage of any remaining race. The chaos of the draft leaves the door wide open for another massive swing before a champion is crowned.
