Is Formula 1's dominant force about to limp across the finishing line? As The Race reports, Mercedes has admitted that Red Bull has become the team to beat following a volatile competitive order dictated by the development war at the front of the grid.
Mercedes had high hopes for a significant package brought during a recent triple-header. After George Russell narrowly beat Red Bull's Max Verstappen in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, he hoped for a bigger step at the next race in Malaysia, where an aerodynamics overhaul debuted. Instead, the upgrade brought a step backwards in pace and a narrower operating window, prompting Russell to run on the older specification to help the team compare data against Kimi Antonelli's car. During this time, Verstappen won in Malaysia and both the sprint and grand prix in Singapore, while Ferrari was also quicker than Mercedes in those events.
Even after a second weekend running the upgraded package on championship leader Antonelli's car, Mercedes admitted it has not brought the expected performance. The team previously hoped for a three-tenths-of-a-second gain. On Friday in Singapore, Antonelli's upgraded car suffered from rear instability, lack of braking confidence, sliding, and tyre overheating. A double-swoop solution involving diff setting changes and a raised ride height with a shifted aero balance helped Antonelli finish third, but team principal and CEO Toto Wolff conceded the upgrade is not as quick as it should be yet.
Red Bull has made a clear step with its 2026 car through a Baku chassis upgrade and progress with its first-ever F1 engine. Wolff praised the power unit, stating you cannot see that it is lagging. Meanwhile, Mercedes has seen its qualifying advantage erode, taking just one pole position in the seven races following its initial run of the first 10.
With Antonelli having his first chance to wrap up the drivers' championship in the United States, the upcoming race carries massive importance. Mercedes must determine how well it understands and can optimise its upgraded car, with the performance through Austin's fast sweeps set to crucially dictate the development direction for 2027.
