As Motorsport.com reports, the battle for position in the constructors' standings has tightened dramatically, leaving Red Bull just seven points behind McLaren heading into the United States Grand Prix. With 17 races down, McLaren holds 339 points while Red Bull sits right behind on 332. That gap has vanished in a hurry thanks to Max Verstappen taking back-to-back victories at Sepang and in Singapore, marking the first wins for Red Bull running its own Ford-backed power unit.
The math for this weekend in Austin is beautifully straightforward, especially with no Sprint on the schedule, leaving a maximum of 43 points up for grabs. To take over third place in the standings, Red Bull simply needs to outscore McLaren by at least eight points. If they manage a seven-point swing instead, the teams would end up level on points, with the tiebreaker decided on a countback of best results since both outfits currently share two grand prix wins this season.
I think Verstappen and Red Bull are just taking advantage of the upgrades that they have delivered. But three tenths of a second is a range that you can add with an upgrade.
Here is the reality of how the scenarios play out. If Verstappen wins the race and team-mate Isack Hadjar misses out on the points, McLaren would need 17 points or fewer to hold on—meaning Lando Norris finishing third and Oscar Piastri ninth would still allow Red Bull to slip ahead by a single point. If Verstappen brings the car home second with Hadjar still scoreless, McLaren can take no more than 10 points, which would mean a fifth place finish with the other car stuck outside the top ten. Drop Verstappen to third, and McLaren's safety margin shrinks to just seven points, requiring a combination like seventh and 10th.
Should disaster strike McLaren entirely and both cars fail to score, Red Bull would need a mere eight points, meaning a sixth place finish for either driver would alter the standings. Naturally, any points scored by Hadjar shift the ceiling higher for the Woking squad. If Verstappen wins and Hadjar fights up to fifth, Red Bull bags 35 points; in that case, Norris in second and Piastri in sixth would yield 26 points, which would still hand the position to Red Bull.
Over at McLaren, team principal Andrea Stella is remarkably calm about the surging threat from the Milton Keynes outfit, viewing it as part of the normal competitive cycle. “It’s what we call this season: the ping-pong,” Stella said. “I think Verstappen and Red Bull are just taking advantage of the upgrades that they have delivered. But three tenths of a second is a range that you can add with an upgrade.”
That outward calm might mask some underlying nerves for the team's supporters, given that Norris has described the MCL40 as "mentally exhausting" to drive, and Stella has admitted that the car's fundamental flaws will not be resolved until the 2027 car arrives. Verstappen, meanwhile, is keeping his usual measured approach. “I don’t want to say now that I will be in the fight in Austin, but yeah, the last few weekends have been great,” he said. “I just take it race by race.”
